If Rep. Walt Minnick (D-ID) loses his re-election bid next year, it won't be because he's too liberal, it will be because he is too conservative. This most conservative of the Blue Dog Democrats, from my old home district in North and western Idaho, is most likely losing his Democratic base while failing to pick up Republican support. We Democrats are told to grin and bear it because it's better than we'd get from any Republican, but that may not be the case anymore. Charles Lemos at MyDD
had this little gem yesterday about Minnick's conservatism that I had not seen before:
Minnick may actually be the most conservative member of Congress from the Northwest... Vote View, a ranking done by the Political Science Department at UCSD, found Walt Minnick to be more conservative than Idaho's Mike Simpson or Washington's Dave Reichert, Doc Hastings or Cathy McMorris-Rodgers.

When we north Idaho Democrats complain about Minnick's votes and consider not voting for him again, we are often told by independents and moderate Republicans to stop whining because he's with us more than anyone else who would win the seat. But maybe not - think about what Vote View is saying: eastern Idaho's Mike Simpson, a veteran Republican, is more liberal than the freshman Democrat Walt Minnick.
Minnick has voted against President Obama's budget proposal, the stimulus, and cap-and-trade all. He will probably vote against health care reform and the final versions of climate change and health care legislation. He even abandons his party on the smaller issues when no one else does: according to
the Idaho Statesman, "When a House committee last week passed legislation to create a federal watchdog agency to oversee home loans and other consumer credit, Rep. Walt Minnick of Idaho was one of only two Democrats to vote against the beefed-up regulations sought by the White House." We all expected Minnick to be a conservative Democrat who would break from his party from time to time, but no one expected the "D" after his name to be quite this misleading.
If Minnick's conservatism is from his heart, than I can respect it, but he shouldn't think that it will help him politically. As this
CNN roundtable in St. Maries, Idaho shows, even those Republicans who do like Minnick don't like him enough to vote for a Democratic majority. Anything they can do to take a vote for Speaker away from Nancy Pelosi, they will do. Which is to say, Walt Minnick can stand with the Republicans all he wants, but he won't get their support. What he will do is lose Democrats he can't win without.
If Minnick really is more conservative than even Mike Simpson, I can't support him. The reason I'm a Democrat isn't because I like the word "Democratic," but because I tend to take the same positions the party does. I don't care what letter follows Minnick's name; if he won't take at least some of those positions, than no, he is no different than most competent Republicans (I throw in the word "competent" so as to exclude ex-Rep. Bill Sali). And if Minnick can't count on even moderate Democrats like me, than he has no base left and is all but a goner come November 2010. I hope he votes for at least one of the final big conference bills - health care or cap-and-trade - because if not, then while I do want to support him, I will almost have to stand up and cheer when he is defeated by a Republican veteran with Hill experience. Vaughn Ward may be a Republican, but his votes probably won't be much different from Minnick's, and if that's the case, his biography becomes a major factor.